NFL Analytics with nflverse
EPA built by hand, quarterback efficiency, play-calling tendencies, receiver value and the fourth-down decision.
Modern football analytics is EPA — expected points added — and this course refuses to treat it as a given: the first tutorial builds the metric from play-by-play data so you know exactly what it rewards and hides. The rest of the course spends it: quarterback comparisons, run/pass tendencies by down and distance, receiver efficiency, and the fourth-down go-for-it decision that made analytics famous.
nflverse data is genuinely free and genuinely complete — every play, every season. This is the fastest route on the site from zero to an argument-settling chart.
What you'll be able to do
- Explain EPA by having computed it from raw plays
- Compare quarterbacks on efficiency rather than counting stats
- Expose a team's play-calling tendencies by down and distance
- Reproduce the fourth-down decision analysis
The bundle contains each part's finished script, the shared helpers, and the sample data they read, with a README listing the run order - the whole course works offline.
The syllabus
Pace: Part 1 is mandatory first; the rest spend what it built. Five sittings.
0 of 5 parts marked complete on this device.
Every part of this course is marked complete on this device. The capstone below is the victory lap - and the quiz will tell you if anything slipped.
- EPA Explained by Building It: Analyze Play-by-Play DataBuild EPA before you trust it - yards lie, points don't.
- Build a QB Efficiency Comparison ChartSpend EPA on the position everyone argues about.
- Team Tendencies: Run/Pass Rate by Down and DistanceDown-and-distance tendencies: teams are more predictable than they think.
- Receiver Efficiency: Targets, Catches, and Yards After CatchSeparating usage from efficiency in the receiving game.
- Fourth-Down Decisions: Which Teams Go For It?The famous one: when the math says go for it.
Check yourself
Five questions, graded on the page, nothing recorded anywhere - pick an answer and the explanation appears.
1. EPA measures…
Every down-distance-field-position state has an expected point value; a play's EPA is the change in that value it caused.
2. Why is a 3-yard gain worth more on 3rd-and-2 than on 3rd-and-8?
On 3rd-and-2 those yards buy a fresh set of downs; on 3rd-and-8 they usually buy a punt. Same yards, different futures - which is the whole case for EPA over yardage.
3. Analytics often favors going for it on fourth-and-short because…
The possession you keep is worth more, on average, than the 40 yards of field position you'd trade it for. The tutorial computes exactly that trade.
4. Yards after catch (YAC) helps separate…
A short pass taken 60 yards and a 60-yard bomb produce identical box-score yards from opposite skill sets. YAC splits the credit.
5. nflverse data is…
Volunteer-maintained, complete play-by-play, free to pull - the reason NFL analytics has such a strong public research scene.
Where next: Statistics for Sports Data · Hockey & Cross-League Projects.